“That’s the market the United States is about to lose. Once Europe breaks free from its nuclear dependency, its market follows. American businesses won’t have the privileged seat at the table anymore—they’ll be just another competitor. And the first to feel the hit? The trillion-dollar American defense industrial complex.”
Excellent newsletter Shankar, and great updates we would never know about if we relied on the MSM.
I think Trump is finally realizing the error of its ways (or not; Trump will double down). He has galvanized Europe; in ways not achieved since WW2.
Europe and Canada are no longer buying US military equipment and weapons, instead relying on their own resources and technology. Investments in the US from Europe and Canada is waning, and European equity markets are attaining better returns than the US; the first time in several years.
Additionally, Russia is weak. We don’t even know how many of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal are fully deployable and operational anymore, given their limited financial resources from the sanctions. After all, when a “so called” nuclear super power needs to rely on North Korea and Iranian arms, then all bets are off.
Not to mention, Russias military is depleted; they couldn’t even beat Ukraine in three years of war, and Ukraine doesn’t even have an Air Force or Navy to speak of.
Bottom line: I wouldn’t want to be Russia right now, and as for Trump and MAGA? As the wise man once said, “we shall see!”
Fantastic article. You have been right every time in all of the EU moves. I trust they will follow these ongoing recommendations. I am delighted that no naïveté about the U.S. lingers among Europe’s leaders. I wish them God Speed.
I am gobsmacked by their complete inability to rise to the occasion. They have had ages to get their act together, to put out some ideas on moves we can make and we get nothing. I gave up on them at the end of the election. They can’t even get good DNC leadership when they have the chance. Stupid. They are behaving (with a few notable exceptions) like they all went into hibernation. We haven’t the time for that kind of nonsense. We need massive protests a la Serbia. Otherwise I fear it will get very ugly. People will be very angry when their children re refused healthcare similar crises beset them. Then the gloves will come off.
What would you like to see them do? As far as I can see, they are speaking out loudly, but without control of any of the executive branches, there is not much more they can do. I am happy to see they are beginning to hold events in Republican districts. The messaging of Bernie Sanders, OAC, Jasmine Crockett, and Tim Walz is the way to go.
It would have helped to refuse to allow cloture on the CR. The argument that Trascist would be getting free license to kill every program if the government were shut down is specious. Force the opposition to fight for your votes rather than Schumer just handing them over with a useless, "Now you owe me."
I think it would have been worse to shut it down. Trump would have used it to shut down the courts. Or rather, just not set them running again. He couldn't risk that. He should have communicated with his people better.
I agree, but I also understand Senator Schumer's reasoning. The acid test here will be do any Democrats vote for the actual budget if it contains these appalling measures.
While it is awesome to see Europe acting desively and hopefully saving the day, it is agonizing to watch the Dems fail us, when the price the U.S. will pay is catastrophic.
One thing that keeps haunting me is this. Kamala immediately following the election sent out a plea to support her newly established Fight Fund to contest the election beginning with Congress. Supporters were in shock at her loss, assumed our elections were safe from the years of countering Trump's accusations, so critized her rather than supporting her effort. She evidently dropped it, but at this time, with what we know, if she stepped up loud and clear as our opposition leader, I believe the response would be huge. She is an experienced attorney general and a fighter. Where is she?
A missed opportunity, for sure, but at the time no one wanted to look like Donald screeching "stop the steal". He has started a deep erosion in voters' trust in elections, and I can see why no one wanted to add to that damage.
What is obvious is that the USA should have spot recounts done in every district and every election to ensure accuracy. And campaign finance laws.
However, how are the Dems failing you? The voters spoke...or failed to speak. The Dems have only their voices (which they are using), and zero ability to pass legislation or impeach. What do you want them to do differently?
I wanted them years ago to mobilize, and take decisive action to warn voters of inpending catastrophic damage from billionaires gaining more and more power within our government. Republicans have literally bragged for years of their plan. We've watched it play out in slow motion. Peter Theil is a good example. Our military depends on him; our government depended on Musk for satellite communication. Seeing the power Theil had, some Dems went after him for donations! Instead of forming strong opposition; they were complicit. Bernie was one of the few sounding the alarm. The DNC allowed FOX to bully and control the words liberal and socialism to the point they were afraid to openly back Bernie in any way. It turns out Bernie was absolutely correct, but most Dems aren't admitting it. They are anything but unified; the headlines even on MSNBC continue to be about their divide. They will not gain the confidence voters need from them by being ineffective.
I am still holding out hope that Kamala will rise. I feel strongly that she's doing her homework assessing the situation so she can choose the appropriate time to come forward in strength. She is a fighter, an Attorney General in the people's court, exactly what we need.
They've had two world wars on their territory. They are refusing to have a third. They viscerally understand the threat. I applaud them.
This likely will seriously damage the US defense industry, too. I don't see the US being able to support it by itself. We're rapidly falling to (at least) Number 2 in the world powers. The Chinese have been saying that this will be their century. Trump is handing it over to them.
The 'exceptionalism' of the USA was a myth into which everyone - Americans, Europeans, Asians - all bought. Well, a myth it has proven to be. America is just another country, and as its government devolves into the kakistocracy of Trump, we can add it to the long list of nations whose history includes a period of collapse and rebirth. Sadly, ours will happen on a very public world stage and everyone will be watching as we struggle to face our long traditions of racism, misogyny, anti-intellectualism and hyper-individualism.
Victorian Protestantism is a long-established cultural norm in the USA: Men go out to work and protect the home while woman keep the home and raise the kids. It opposes women out in the community (except with their husbands) or having their own careers or independence. How's that for misogyny?
I wanted to say it is a pleasure to read your analysis of Europe’s security and strategic thoughts on the ongoing Ukraine-Russo war. Best I have seen.
We are living through two pivotal moments.
- The first is combined UK- French-German security leadership. A move away from the US and US defense interests. With this move, Europe strengthens itself financially and weakens the US. I expect Europe’s economic size to exceed the faltering US economy soon.
- The second, America realizes the value of government and how much robber barons have stolen from them for decades. This anti-oligarch sentiment is notable to this American. The stakes are real, loss of cherished American programs real, the indifference and cruelty from those sworn to help us is real.
Thanks once again. And congrats on the follow from Professor Goggin.
That is a different topic sir. Will cover it soon, as it is an important one. Want to wait until Friday to see the debt brake reform pass the upper house in Germany. Then we can discuss that one.
“That’s the market the United States is about to lose. Once Europe breaks free from its nuclear dependency, its market follows. American businesses won’t have the privileged seat at the table anymore—they’ll be just another competitor. And the first to feel the hit? The trillion-dollar American defense industrial complex.”
Excellent newsletter Shankar, and great updates we would never know about if we relied on the MSM.
I think Trump is finally realizing the error of its ways (or not; Trump will double down). He has galvanized Europe; in ways not achieved since WW2.
Europe and Canada are no longer buying US military equipment and weapons, instead relying on their own resources and technology. Investments in the US from Europe and Canada is waning, and European equity markets are attaining better returns than the US; the first time in several years.
Additionally, Russia is weak. We don’t even know how many of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal are fully deployable and operational anymore, given their limited financial resources from the sanctions. After all, when a “so called” nuclear super power needs to rely on North Korea and Iranian arms, then all bets are off.
Not to mention, Russias military is depleted; they couldn’t even beat Ukraine in three years of war, and Ukraine doesn’t even have an Air Force or Navy to speak of.
Bottom line: I wouldn’t want to be Russia right now, and as for Trump and MAGA? As the wise man once said, “we shall see!”
Nice summary. And as Trump tanks the American economy and isolates America further, there are many opportunities to invest in the EU.
And Canada is spending $6.5b on Australian over the horizon radar, rather than it being sold to Trump's USA.
Fantastic article. You have been right every time in all of the EU moves. I trust they will follow these ongoing recommendations. I am delighted that no naïveté about the U.S. lingers among Europe’s leaders. I wish them God Speed.
I think I got lucky on this one. The nuclear path, I wanted France to move, but did not expect Macron will be this quick.
They don’t realistically have much choice, and they need to give a strong signal of how serious they are. Doesn’t get much more serious than this.
Am waiting with interest to see Trump’s response to the Russian “ceasefire” bombing. And an hour wait? He is really being played.
Mum will be the answer. This is fully dems fault. What in the heck are they doing? They forgot how to be an opposition that can shape policies.
I am gobsmacked by their complete inability to rise to the occasion. They have had ages to get their act together, to put out some ideas on moves we can make and we get nothing. I gave up on them at the end of the election. They can’t even get good DNC leadership when they have the chance. Stupid. They are behaving (with a few notable exceptions) like they all went into hibernation. We haven’t the time for that kind of nonsense. We need massive protests a la Serbia. Otherwise I fear it will get very ugly. People will be very angry when their children re refused healthcare similar crises beset them. Then the gloves will come off.
As the World closes the bathroom door, sadly noting the razor blades in the soap dish, it then turns out the light.
Buh bye America
What would you like to see them do? As far as I can see, they are speaking out loudly, but without control of any of the executive branches, there is not much more they can do. I am happy to see they are beginning to hold events in Republican districts. The messaging of Bernie Sanders, OAC, Jasmine Crockett, and Tim Walz is the way to go.
It would have helped to refuse to allow cloture on the CR. The argument that Trascist would be getting free license to kill every program if the government were shut down is specious. Force the opposition to fight for your votes rather than Schumer just handing them over with a useless, "Now you owe me."
I think it would have been worse to shut it down. Trump would have used it to shut down the courts. Or rather, just not set them running again. He couldn't risk that. He should have communicated with his people better.
I agree, but I also understand Senator Schumer's reasoning. The acid test here will be do any Democrats vote for the actual budget if it contains these appalling measures.
While it is awesome to see Europe acting desively and hopefully saving the day, it is agonizing to watch the Dems fail us, when the price the U.S. will pay is catastrophic.
One thing that keeps haunting me is this. Kamala immediately following the election sent out a plea to support her newly established Fight Fund to contest the election beginning with Congress. Supporters were in shock at her loss, assumed our elections were safe from the years of countering Trump's accusations, so critized her rather than supporting her effort. She evidently dropped it, but at this time, with what we know, if she stepped up loud and clear as our opposition leader, I believe the response would be huge. She is an experienced attorney general and a fighter. Where is she?
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2509037/kamala-harris-fight-fund-seeks-donations-for-senate-and-house-recounts-sparking-online-debate
A missed opportunity, for sure, but at the time no one wanted to look like Donald screeching "stop the steal". He has started a deep erosion in voters' trust in elections, and I can see why no one wanted to add to that damage.
What is obvious is that the USA should have spot recounts done in every district and every election to ensure accuracy. And campaign finance laws.
However, how are the Dems failing you? The voters spoke...or failed to speak. The Dems have only their voices (which they are using), and zero ability to pass legislation or impeach. What do you want them to do differently?
I wanted them years ago to mobilize, and take decisive action to warn voters of inpending catastrophic damage from billionaires gaining more and more power within our government. Republicans have literally bragged for years of their plan. We've watched it play out in slow motion. Peter Theil is a good example. Our military depends on him; our government depended on Musk for satellite communication. Seeing the power Theil had, some Dems went after him for donations! Instead of forming strong opposition; they were complicit. Bernie was one of the few sounding the alarm. The DNC allowed FOX to bully and control the words liberal and socialism to the point they were afraid to openly back Bernie in any way. It turns out Bernie was absolutely correct, but most Dems aren't admitting it. They are anything but unified; the headlines even on MSNBC continue to be about their divide. They will not gain the confidence voters need from them by being ineffective.
I am still holding out hope that Kamala will rise. I feel strongly that she's doing her homework assessing the situation so she can choose the appropriate time to come forward in strength. She is a fighter, an Attorney General in the people's court, exactly what we need.
She needs perhaps to hear people call for her?
They've had two world wars on their territory. They are refusing to have a third. They viscerally understand the threat. I applaud them.
This likely will seriously damage the US defense industry, too. I don't see the US being able to support it by itself. We're rapidly falling to (at least) Number 2 in the world powers. The Chinese have been saying that this will be their century. Trump is handing it over to them.
The 'exceptionalism' of the USA was a myth into which everyone - Americans, Europeans, Asians - all bought. Well, a myth it has proven to be. America is just another country, and as its government devolves into the kakistocracy of Trump, we can add it to the long list of nations whose history includes a period of collapse and rebirth. Sadly, ours will happen on a very public world stage and everyone will be watching as we struggle to face our long traditions of racism, misogyny, anti-intellectualism and hyper-individualism.
How misogyny got into your mix, I wonder?
Victorian Protestantism is a long-established cultural norm in the USA: Men go out to work and protect the home while woman keep the home and raise the kids. It opposes women out in the community (except with their husbands) or having their own careers or independence. How's that for misogyny?
Well, as you have said, it is the tradition, it doesn’t mean it’s a current situation, which is not.
Have not experienced any of that in the US.
In fact, the US is the most welcoming and tolerant country I had lived in. Originally from Europe but had lived on many continents.
Just interested - where would you like to live if not in the US?
Hi Shankar,
I wanted to say it is a pleasure to read your analysis of Europe’s security and strategic thoughts on the ongoing Ukraine-Russo war. Best I have seen.
We are living through two pivotal moments.
- The first is combined UK- French-German security leadership. A move away from the US and US defense interests. With this move, Europe strengthens itself financially and weakens the US. I expect Europe’s economic size to exceed the faltering US economy soon.
- The second, America realizes the value of government and how much robber barons have stolen from them for decades. This anti-oligarch sentiment is notable to this American. The stakes are real, loss of cherished American programs real, the indifference and cruelty from those sworn to help us is real.
Thanks once again. And congrats on the follow from Professor Goggin.
Thanks for this amazing post!
The New World Order has indeed begun, thanks to MAGA destroying America 🇺🇸
Good article. Believe right on target.
Two g’s , respectfully . Aggressive. 🕊
Wonderful iverview and encouraging to see leadership like this from Europe. Comme on dit: formidable!
New World Order. Thank you. I hadn't thought of this until I looked at the photo of Merz and Macron in Berlin. The Offices of the President of Germany are Modern.https://www.bundespraesident.de/EN/role-and-functions/office-of-the-federal-president/the-building/the-building_node.html While here in the U.S. the White House is and has become a relic, like us? Now with trump, the description of the building tells you how many cans of paint are needed 570, to paint the exterior. https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/the-white-house/ Thank you for this excellent essay.
mertz scraped through in the upper house, it was not plain sailing as expected
Weapons are one thing, but what about intelligence gathering, targeting and the like? And how does this all help Ukraine?
That is a different topic sir. Will cover it soon, as it is an important one. Want to wait until Friday to see the debt brake reform pass the upper house in Germany. Then we can discuss that one.
I'm very interested in your take on that and will be watching for your post.
It’s about bloody time!
euronews today quoting marcon said that germany will be fullly nuclear by 2035, that is a long time frame
Good article Shankar-yes the times are achangin-it’s sad but it’s the reality. Nobody should be looking to the US with Reek.
News to gladden the heart...