The U.S. Can’t Outperform China by Imitating Its Own Worst Mistakes

America's self-defeating habits — media obsession, short-termism, and reactive economic policy — are the real obstacles to competing with China.

On Monday, China issued a stark warning: it will deploy “countermeasures” against any nation that collaborates with the United States to undermine its interests. The statement, unusually direct, came on the heels of reports that Donald Trump’s economic team is considering using tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. allies into distancing themselves from China.

These are the kinds of moves that drag nations into war. Was that necessary? Nope. But let's not kid ourselves—China isn’t playing by the rules of fair competition. Just ask the nations now buried under the weight of Beijing’s loans—ask what they had to surrender just to keep servicing the debt.

When Trump first slapped tariffs, China didn’t flinch. They choked off mineral exports vital to American industries. Imagine what they’ll do when the entire world is hooked on their steel and aluminum.

The playbook is already visible. China decimated global steel and aluminum production by flooding the market with subsidized exports. National security advisors everywhere should be losing sleep. China is not expanding. It is absorbing.

One dependency at a time.

And let’s be clear: all it takes is one turn of the political dial. One dictator. One moment. Putin had his in 2022. What will Russia’s “all-weather friend” do in 2042?

Do we wait and let our children find out the hard way?

I’m not blind to the urgency here. The developed world must begin the long, necessary work of untangling itself from China’s grip—before the next warning comes with a price we can’t afford to pay.

My only question is this: is this really how you plan to do it? By trying to crush China’s economy through a coalition of the bullied? The world’s largest importer trying to weaponize its buyer power to pressure smaller nations into turning on the world’s largest exporter?

How exactly is that supposed to work?

First of all, it’s not going to work. Second, China sees it coming from a mile away. The politburo will meet and say, “See? We were right all along. The U.S. is, and always will be, our enemy.” Not that they ever thought otherwise. But Trump’s moves will now accelerate their mission—to deepen the world’s dependency on Chinese supply chains, not loosen it.

If the goal is to reduce that dependency, there’s a better way: compete. Build alliances. Imagine Trump had doubled down on NAFTA, wrapped in Mexico and Canada, added Australia, Ukraine, maybe even a few African nations. He could’ve said:

"We’ve got ten years. In that time, let’s take control of half the world’s steel and aluminum production. Here’s what we bring—what can you offer? Let’s get to work."

That would work. Not by trying to decimate China’s markets, but by making it harder for China to dominate unchallenged. Set an example so compelling that China can’t ignore it. Ten years later, when you’ve built something real, you say:

"Keep manipulating the market, and we’ll keep responding. Choose wisely."

And the best part? The allies you're trying to rally wouldn’t need ultimatums. They’d want in. They’d see the opportunity. Shared ambition is always more powerful than shared fear. But no—building something real takes vision, discipline, and time. And in the MAGA universe, those are liabilities.

The reward isn't in results—it’s in airtime. Strategy is traded for spectacle. And every time reality pushes back? Double down, louder, harder, until it all collapses under the weight of its own theatrics.

When mistakes are made, the only rule is to double down until everything breaks. That’s what Trump and the GOP did with COVID. Relentless missteps, one after the other, until the U.S. sat at the top of the developed world's death charts—despite creating the vaccines faster than anyone else.

And now? That same playbook is back—this time with the economy.

The IMF has already cut the U.S. growth forecast by a full percentage point—and the administration hasn’t even hit Day 100. And behind closed doors? Reports say Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has admitted: this trade war isn’t sustainable.

Then why pursue it?

Because, as always, TV comes before strategy. Just like it did during COVID. Just like it is now. And just like it will again—until there’s nothing left to break but the country itself.