This Is the Week That Could Break the Pattern

Why Mark Carney’s Against-All-Odds Campaign Might Be Canada’s Most Important Election in a Generation

The final week before an election—especially the last ten days—is a dreadful stretch. Not just for pollsters or politicians, but even more so for voters who understand the weight of a single vote.

It’s not because the campaigns have run their course, sharpened their attacks, or settled into their positions. It’s because the window for convincing is crashing shut—while the undecided, those who’ve kept their cards close, finally begin to show their hand.

This is the break. The final one. And it can go anywhere, depending entirely on the size and lean of those who’ve stayed hidden. The larger their number, the sharper the break.

So I held my breath. Waiting to see where it would go, and just as importantly, how fast.

And then, it came. The movement broke toward the Conservatives. After three months of sliding, they not only stopped the fall—they climbed. Half a point up. Enough to drag the Liberals down from a five-point lead to just a hair above four, with less than 100 hours left on the clock.

The speed of the Conservative bump—exactly 0.5 points since March 30th, 2025—isn’t dramatic enough to threaten the Liberals’ four-point lead. That, on its face, is very good news for Mark Carney and his camp. But beneath the surface, a deeper, older challenge still looms: the enduring power of hate-based campaigning backed by a rock-solid base.