Zeitenwende, Interrupted

Olaf Scholz promised a turning point. Instead, Germany stalled. Can Merz finally finish what should have already begun?

There are things outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz did remarkably well — and others he was borderline ridiculous at. It was almost as if he operated on reverse instinct: when something was impossible, he rose to the challenge. But the moment it became possible, he’d lose all bearings.

If it was a low-hanging fruit, you could bet he’d position his head right underneath it. Madness. He deftly managed the oil and gas crisis triggered by Russia, averting a catastrophic economic contraction. But the Zeitenwende he announced — that 100-billion-euro plan to remake German defense — barely made it off the paper.

Had it worked, it could’ve boosted the economy, increased employment, and created spillover effects across the industrial heartland. More than that, it would’ve sent a clear message to Europe: the time to move forward is now.

But nope.

Despite a war raging on Europe’s eastern front for three years, the German military remains stuck in static mode. Too small to defend the country. Too dependent on a single type of missile — one that comes out of storage, not off a production line. And its long-range air-defense coverage? Largely depleted, thanks to its support for Ukraine.

The irony is bitter. Germany has the tech. No question. Their tanks are world class. The Taurus cruise missile? One of a kind. The howitzer — not built for hit-and-run ambushes, but for hit-and-vanish ambushes. The air-defense systems? Once a prototype, now Ukraine’s battlefield backbone.

And here’s the kicker — every single one of these is made in Germany.

In just two years, Germany could have built one of the most lethal militaries in the world. So where is it now? Exactly where it was three years ago.

The only real shift has come from the defense manufacturers. Rheinmetall and others are finally ramping up. Germany now produces more artillery shells than any other developed nation. And they’re likely doing it cheaper than the United States. The IRIS-T air defense units — and their missiles — are now rolling out in steady waves.

There are only two things Germany needs to fix its military.

• First, their defense products are still too expensive — not because of inefficiency, but because manufacturing hasn’t yet hit economies of scale.

• Second, the German military has only 192,000 troops. That is far too small to defend the country, especially in the current geopolitical climate.

Right there lies the answer. Germany needs to add more battalions and place substantial, long-term orders with its own defense companies. The remaining capability gaps should be filled through smart procurement from trusted partners abroad.

The incoming Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and his coalition partners have begun moving in the right direction. They’ve published a new agreement outlining plans for a voluntary military service designed to help rebuild the Bundeswehr.

“We need these 100,000 additional troops immediately — and as quickly as possible,” said General Carsten Breuer, Germany’s top military commander, at the German Council on Foreign Relations last week.

He was clear. “The requirement on the table for Germany is 460,000 soldiers,” Breuer said — a figure that includes active-duty forces, reservists, and former soldiers Germany must be able to call up in a major crisis.

He is right. Germany needs to get closer to half a million troops. No need to do it overnight — and it can’t be done overnight — but a credible, funded path must be laid out. That’s the scale required. With the debt brake now lifted, the incoming chancellor has already prepared the political ground for large investments in defense manufacturing.

But none of that matters unless Germany also expands its military manpower. You can’t just buy weapons and store them. That’s not combat power. Real power lies in the force structure that can deploy, maneuver, and fight. And at under 200,000 troops, Germany has not been — and cannot be — counted among the world’s serious military powers.

The current announcement still lacks concrete commitments. No binding troop targets, no formal timelines. But it marks a shift. A small step, yes. But finally, one in the right direction.